Making Sense of Obama’s Pakistan Policy

By Aisha Fayyazi Sarwari

President Obama

“Our goal should be peace within and peace without” – Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah, 15th August, 1947

Even if you dismiss the grandeur of a self assured black man against the backdrop of the slave-built White House possessing highly superior oratory skills, Barack Hussain Obama’s inauguration address was still nothing short of majestic. He minced no words and said to the countries of the world, “we want peace.” The tone and manner of the address did not originate from the dry-mouthed think tank publications that Washington churns out; it came from a place much deeper and authentic. Obama’s message to the world resonated with the world’s Muslim nations as front page news – Obama wants dialogue.

The excitement of the developing world indicated how low the standard of leadership had gotten in matters of global foreign relations; A standard that was summed up in the New York Times Op-ed for George W. Bush, by Frank Rich when he called him among other things, “Smaller than life.” The same Op-ed he writes, “The discrepancy between the grandeur of the failure and the stature of the man is a puzzlement. We are still trying to compute it.” When the ex-President was asked by an interviewer what he has learned from his time in office, he replied: “I’ve learned that God is good. All the time.” Not only was George W Bush a puzzlement for Americans but he almost always reconfirmed the conspiracy that majority of Muslims attest to, that America is the deeply theocratic Christian country that Samuel Huntington wrote about in Clash of Civilizations. And by extension that this is a war against them: an imperial power’s hegemony over a religious minority. Muslims largely believe that the conflict has roots of hate that dig deeper than the recent past. Bush cultivated a presidency of power that rested on fear and the banality of evil. His legacy stretched from the Abu-Gharib torture scandal, the unjustified attack on Iraq, and the financial meltdown. His era is to be remembered as the lowest point in modern leadership.

It is quite possible that many of the hopes and aspirations that the Muslim world pins on President Barack Hussain Obama is erroneous, and is only a reactionary public wish to paint him as the prophetic messiah that undoes the wrongs of his predecessor and heals the world of war and terror. But it is also possible that Obama is something in between the two extremes. A pragmatist, who can’t do everything right but will do some things right, in accordance to fact. Albeit with a delayed response: He chose to give a statement of sympathy on Israeli air strikes 11 days after the attack began on Gaza. To start off, before Obama formulated a divisive Pakistan policy he was criticized by Noam Chomsky, one of America’s most vehement foreign policy critic, for not including enough bandwidth on his website about Pakistan and the region. Chomsky said, “One of the major problems coming is Afghanistan and Pakistan. That’s pretty serious. Take a look at Obama’s website, under issues, foreign policy issues. The names don’t even appear. I mean, we’re supposed to be ignorant and meddlesome outsiders. We’re not supposed to know what Brand Obama is.” Chomsky was wrong though. Two months before the above statement, Barack Obama had emphasized this region sufficiently in an August 1st 2007 address delivered to the Wilson Center. Barack Obama laid out his dissatisfaction with the premise of the war in Iraq, accusing George Bush of confusing the civil war with Al Qaeda, and Shia groups with Sunni groups. He said he wants to step away from the mess and leave Iraq to the Iraqis, with structural support. Obama clarified from the onset of his campaign that the troops in Iraq have undermined a more real security threat in Afghanistan. He said, “Above all, I will send a clear message: we will not repeat the mistake of the past, when we turned our back on Afghanistan following Soviet withdrawal. As 9/11 showed us, the security of Afghanistan and America is shared. And today, that security is most threatened by the al Qaeda and Taliban sanctuary in the tribal regions of northwest Pakistan.”

The new president had also clarified his need to make US aid to Pakistan conditional, tied to economic and security incentives, and also his rejection of the Bush Administration’s support of Pakistan’s ex-Army Chief and President, Pervez Musharraf. Obama promised to deliver F16 to Pakistan in an attempt to vamp up its conventional weapons cache. What the Obama administration’s policy is with regard to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons is something that remains to be seen, but understandably a Muslim nation that developed successfully covert nuclear weapons is not a comfort zone for any administration in the US. Though Pakistan is a long-standing US ally status, the country’s defense and political analysts are unanimous in their conclusion to ask America to renegotiate the terms of co-operation, particulary with regard to the US drone attacks, and keep the volatile domestic situation in the equation. But President Obama is listening more closely to the battle fire waging in Bajaur and the NWFP province of Pakistan between Pakistani paramilitary and the Taliban. He said in his same address last August, “Al Qaeda terrorists train, travel, and maintain global communications in this safe-haven.

The Taliban pursues a hit and run strategy, striking in Afghanistan, then skulking across the border to safety.” Since that address, the conflict in Bajaur has gotten systematically worse, particularly on the part of the Pakistan military underestimating how well-entrenched the Taliban is in the province with a gateway to Sawat where the Taliban are bombing girls school in a bid to launch their version of radical governance. Gen. Tariq Khan, the commander of the Pakistan Frontier Corps, who leads the campaign against the Taliban in this area, is quoted in The Times saying, “over 83 of their soldiers have died and 300 have been wounded since early August. That compares with 61 dead among forces of the American-led coalition in Afghanistan in the first four months of 2008.” As a US ally, Pakistan has got benefits, but it has also received the short end of the deal, partly because of the Pakistani military’s own mismanagement and partly because of India’s growing influence in Washington. The Obama administration will want to balance China’s growing power with India’s and for that it will have to find a way to get India out of the shackles of an endless confrontation with Pakistan over the disputed Kashmir territory. There is no doubt though that things could be much worse for Pakistan vis a vis it’s political and economic stability if someone other than Obama won in the Democratic Party seat. He has shown, in assembling men and women in his team, immaculate judgment, at least with respect to the international policy team. Specifically the people in Obama’s team that are expected to have a favorable understanding toward assisting Pakistan to get out of this crisis are John Podesta, Obama transition co-leader, who will release a report arguing for a thorough reorientation of U.S. policy toward Pakistan. As the Biden-Lugar bill is pending in Congress, Podesta’s report will propose US support of the economic and political institutions and a strategic shift in policy toward Pakistan.

Then there is also Joe Biden, Obama’s Administration second in command. Biden has harbored no secrets for his interest in solidifying Pakistan’s alliance with the US and for many in the Pakistani administration, he is the strongest link to better relations between the two. President Obama has successfully isolated the fanatic elements fueled by Bush’s doctrine by simply showing his aspiration towards peace in the Muslim world. And as a testament to changing times, the New Yorker Magazine reports that he has suggested he will deliver a speech from a Muslim capital within his first hundred days of his term. Islamabad, is certainly a likely consideration. If he does this, he will successfully make Al Qaeda leadership wish for the good old days. The central premise President Barack Hussain Obama articuated vis a via Pakistan is: “our goal is not simply an ally in Pakistan, it is a democratic ally.” So when the leadership in Washington is principled, it is Pakistan good fortune to coincide a face with democratic leadership in place. How Obama’s counterpart in Pakistan, Asif Ali Zardari articulates Pakistan’s principles to both US and sells the policy internally, remains the biggest challenge for the peace that this region desperately needs.

Aisha F. Sarwari has previously served as a press officer at the Pakistani Embassy in Washington. She currently resides in Islamabad.