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Thursday, May 28, 2009

New low-cost airline targets smaller markets

Low-cost carrier JetAmerica aims to serve smaller markets it believes bigger airlines neglect

NEWARK, N.J. (AP) -- A new low-cost airline will begin serving mid-sized U.S. cities that it thinks larger carriers have left behind.

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Clearwater, Fla.-based JetAmerica said 34 nonstop passenger flights a week will start July 13 at Toledo, Ohio; South Bend, Ind.; Melbourne, Fla.; Newark, N.J.; Minneapolis and Lansing, Mich. Twenty-eight flights start or end at Newark Liberty International Airport. The carrier will add six more flights -- from Toledo to Minneapolis -- starting Aug. 14.

JetAmerica is targeting small and midsize cities like Lansing, which has seen the number of daily flights at its Capital Region International Airport fall from 35 to 12 the past five years. The decline is part of a national trend that has seen airfares increase at those airports as daily flights have decreased.

Robert Selig, head of the Capital Region Airport Authority, said JetAmerica will give Lansing business travelers direct access to New York City and carry leisure travelers to central Florida.

"We don't have access to either one right now," Selig said. "So, this is going to fill a major void in our schedule."

Filling that void won't be cheap.

The Lansing, South Bend, Melbourne and Toledo airports are subsidizing JetAmerica with $1.4 million in grants in its first year, along with about $867,000 in waived airport fees and $1.1 million in marketing and advertising assistance.

South Bend, Toledo and Melbourne received their grants from the U.S. Department of Transportation's Small Community Air Service Development Program, which has awarded $104 million to 223 recipients since 2002 in an effort to restore lost service and bring air fares down.

Newark and Minneapolis, each of which serve more than 20 million passengers a year, are not offering assistance to JetAmerica.

John Weikle, chief executive of JetAmerica, said the subsidies will help insulate the new carrier from spikes in jet fuel prices. Higher fuel prices have contributed to the failures of at least four major airlines since 9/11. Smaller carriers have also been hurt.

Surging fuel prices helped bankrupt ultra-discounter Skybus Inc. last year. Weikle founded that Columbus, Ohio-based airline known for its $10 fares. The bankruptcy cost 450 employees their jobs.

JetAmerica's pricing scheme will share some Skybus characteristics.

Prices will start at $9 a seat and top out at $199. The $9 price will apply to the first nine to 19 seats on each plane. Passengers will pay $15 to check a bag. Food, drinks and in-flight TV will also come at a cost.

The carrier is starting out with one leased Boeing 737-800, expects to add a second in the first month, and have as many as four by July of next year. Weikle's business plans calls for an additional 189-seat jet to be leased every four months.

Each Boeing 737-800 can fly to four cities a day, Weikle said.

Weikle estimated JetAmerica's revenue at more than $50 million in the first year and about $150 million in the second. He compares his business model to that of Wal-Mart Inc., which started out by serving cities of less than 50,000 people because competitors were not interested in them.

JetAmerica plans to serve Melbourne, Fla., with at least six flights a week. Richard Ennis, executive director of Melbourne International Airport, said JetAmerica's planes and nonstop routes persuaded him to support the carrier. Melbourne, a coastal community about 70 miles southeast of Orlando, recorded a 45 percent decline in passenger traffic at its airport from 2000 to 2008.

Ennis said carriers with larger jets like the Boeing 737-800 charge less per seat, which is an advantage enjoyed by Orlando International Airport and Orlando Sanford International Airport.

"It's the only way I can beat them out," Ennis said of the neighboring airports.

Close-up Look at Black Hole Reveals Feeding Frenzy

Astronomers are getting a close-up look at a cosmic eating machine: a spinning black hole that devours the mass equivalent of two Earths per hour, verging on the limit of its feeding ability.

Supermassive black holes can weigh as much as a billion suns or more and are thought to reside at the centers of most, if not all, large galaxies. Their gravity is so powerful it traps even light, making black holes invisible. Their presence is inferred by watching the motions of stars and gas around them, along with the radiation that's generated in their frenzied vicinities.

The behemoth of interest in the new close-up study, which will be published in the May 28 issue of the journal Nature, lies at the center of a distant active galaxy known as 1H0707-495. Using data from the European Space Agency's XMM-Newton observatory, astronomers analyzed X-rays emitted during the black hole's feeding frenzy.

As matter swirls in toward a black hole, gravity makes it travel at significant fractions of light-speed. That generates X-rays and other radiation that can give astronomers information about the spin of the black hole and its size, among other details.

In this case, the astronomers say they are tracking matter that's within twice the radius of the black hole itself.

Specifically, the XMM-Newton detections suggested the galaxy's core is much richer in iron than the rest of the galaxy. In addition, there was a time lag of 30 seconds between changes in the X-ray light observed directly and those seen in its reflection from the disk. From this delay, the astronomers estimate the black hole weighs about 3 million to 5 million solar masses – modest by supermassive black hole standards.

The team will continue to track the galaxy and map out the accreting process of this supermassive black hole. Far from being a steady process, like muddy water slipping down a plughole, a feeding black hole is a messy eater.

"Accretion is a very messy process because of the magnetic fields that are involved," said study scientist Andrew Fabian of the University of Cambridge.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

The Taliban as the Borg

By Irfan Husain

AS a result of being glued to our TV screens, watching the fighting and the burgeoning refugee crisis in the northwest, many of us will have missed major events unfolding elsewhere.

I, for one, watched enthralled as the Nasa space shuttle blasted off on Monday to rendezvous with the orbiting Hubble telescope to repair and upgrade the ageing deep space imaging platform. Those who wish to see stunning images from the outer edge of the universe can log on to www.hubblesite.org.

Without making any apologies, let me say that I have always been dazzled by the magic of outer space. Astrophysics and science fiction have dominated many waking hours. Sadly, I do not see mankind travelling out of our solar system in my lifetime, but the Hubble telescope has made it possible for us armchair astronauts to ‘boldly go where no one has gone before’. This immortal line, probably the most famous use of a split infinitive known to the English-speaking world, is the signature opening of the Star Trek series.

Out of the four different series spawned by the original franchise, my favourite remains Star Trek: The Next Generation. Here, Captain Jean Luc Picard and his intrepid crew of the star ship Enterprise fly to the far corners of the universe, encountering adventures involving aliens and bizarre phenomena to do with the space-time continuum. Obviously, they travel at ‘warp speed’ because sub-light velocity would have them crawling through space at less than 186,000 miles per second. At this speed, it would require hundreds of years for the Enterprise to travel from one star system to another.

Running through several episodes are a number of encounters with the Borg, an aggressive culture that assimilates entire species, and annihilates those that resist. Once assimilated, individuals have a number of implants placed within them to incorporate them into the Borg collective. All species thus ‘assimilated’ lose their sense of self, and become small cogs in the giant hive mind, to the extent that they retain no personal memories, and even lose their names. ‘Resistance is futile!’ is what the Borg say to every new species they meet.

Watching a re-run featuring the fearsome Borg, I was struck by how similar they are to the Taliban. Anonymous and terrifying, these bearded holy warriors could easily be an army of clones. Motivated only by ideas put in their unformed minds by the Taliban collective, they kill all who differ with them. Those who fall into line then become foot soldiers. Other recruits to the Taliban cause are drawn from the thousands of madressahs that have proliferated across Pakistan. Here, young men are brainwashed into hating all ideas and influences not sanctioned by their narrow belief system.

Just like the Borg, the Taliban are an implacable foe in their unreasoning drive to assimilate or annihilate all in their path. So certain are they of their monopoly on the one truth that they are not willing to contemplate the possibility of different approaches, different beliefs. And just like the Borg, it is impossible to reason or negotiate with the Taliban. It’s all or nothing for these stone-age warriors.

However, those manipulating them are far more cunning. People like Osama Bin Laden and Baitullah Mehsud are using the dirt-poor, ignorant Taliban as pawns in their attempt to seize power in large parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan. In their dream of world conquest, a secure base in the rugged tribal areas would give them the opportunity to raise and train an army to take on the world.

And just as the Borg use cutting-edge technology and deadly weapons to take over entire star systems, the Taliban use the Internet and modern tools to fight western, Afghan and Pakistan armed forces equipped with overwhelming firepower.

It would be a mistake to see the conflict only in ideological terms. At play here is a struggle being waged by the have-nots against the haves. True, most of the victims are poor people, but the Taliban are being urged on with the promise of a better life in this world, with heaven awaiting them if they are killed in the struggle. For the rank-and-file, this is a better deal than anybody else has offered them, so why shouldn’t they be fighting the infidels?

Whenever Captain Picard has attempted to reason with the Borg, he has been rebuffed and the war has resumed. The Borg collective has been programmed to continue their conquest of the universe until every species has either been assimilated or destroyed. So, too, have the Taliban used every negotiated ceasefire to consolidate their gains before expanding their influence.

Given the nature of the foe, it is hard to see how the Taliban and their many offshoots and affiliates can be tamed and contained. It would certainly be a mistake to confuse nationalist struggles waged by Muslims with Islamic groups fighting to impose their benighted views on the rest of the world. The former can negotiate meaningfully as their goals are to do with territory. But the Islamic jihadis want to dominate the world, and force the rest of us to live according to their primitive code.

As mankind explores the stars, and seeks to leave the confines of earth’s gravity, it is hard to believe that we are still locked in an existential battle against a foe that wants to drag us back to the seventh century. For the Taliban, there are no half-measures. As we saw in Swat, they are not content with simply running a territory ceded to them by a weak state. Having grabbed one piece of land, they sense weakness, and want it all.

The Borg, too, spurn offers to negotiate as a sign of feebleness. For them, the only options open to another race is to accept ‘assimilation’ or face destruction. And these are the choices the jihadis are offering. Whatever the likes of Maulana Sufi Mohammad might say, any deals we make with the Taliban have invariably been broken by them, just as the Swat deal was. In the extremist handbook, the adversary only offers to talk when he is weak, so that’s when you go for the jugular.

Finally, just as the Borg do not care about their casualties, the Taliban are completely indifferent to the losses they incur. Their fighters have been indoctrinated into believing that if killed, they will be fast-tracked straight to heaven, where many earthly delights await them. So nobody sheds any tears for fallen Taliban, except their mothers in the dark of the night.

irfan.husain@gmail.com

Pakistan's mystics in sights of Taliban

In this photo taken on Thursday, March 26, 2009, Pakistani devotees are checked by a security member at the entrance of the Golra Sharif Shrine on the outskirts of Islamabad, Pakistan. Worshippers still flock to the grave of Rahman Baba, a Muslim mystic whose poems of peace and devotion to God are revered by millions in Pakistan and Afghanistan 300 years after he composed them. But they now pray at a mound of rubble and twisted steel _ all that remains of his tomb since militants bombed it. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AP) — Worshippers still flock to the grave of Rahman Baba, a Muslim mystic revered by millions in Pakistan and Afghanistan. But they now pray at a mound of rubble and twisted steel — all that remains of his tomb since militants bombed it.

The blast in March was the most high-profile in a recent spate of attacks against Pakistan's homespun, tolerant brand of Islam by hard-liners trying to replace it with the more austere version espoused by the Taliban, al-Qaida and other Sunni extremist groups.

"This hurts deep in my heart," said Ihasan ul-Haq, as he looked through a rainstorm onto the ruins of the once ornate, whitewashed tomb on the outskirts of Peshawar, a main northwestern town coming under the influence of the extremists. "And to think they do this in the name of Islam."

The attack was a sign of the extreme intolerance of the militants and the threat posed by the insurgency to the religious and cultural heart of Pakistan, a nation of 170 million people that the U.S. sees as critical in the global fight against Islamic extremism.

As in other countries where Islam replaced earlier religions, the faith widely practiced in Pakistan is different to that in its birthplace, the Arabian peninsula. While still devout and socially conservative, most Pakistanis follow or are influenced by Islam's mystical path of Sufism and incorporate local trappings such as visiting the shrines of saints, devotional songs and dancing. Some estimates say up to 75 percent of the country belongs to this group.

However, the extremists take their cue instead from Islam as practiced in the deserts of 7th century Arabia and are opposed to Sufism and indigenous forms of the faith — particularly the veneration of saints — which they consider dangerous deviations. The extremists gained strength in Pakistan in the 1980s, partly on the back of funding by the United States, which used hardline groups as proxies to fight Soviet rule in Afghanistan.

The fissure between the two forms of Islam has left some wondering whether the government or its Western allies could harness the moderation of the Sufis, and any anger they feel toward the militants, against the Taliban's spreading grip over the nuclear-armed nation. In a study in 2007, the U.S.-based RAND cooperation recommended the United States reach out to Sufis to strengthen moderate networks in Muslim countries, citing as an example Indonesia, another Muslim country where foreign groups have been discreetly helping the moderates.

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, the descendant of a famous mystic and the keeper of his shrine, speaks often of the need to promote Sufism over extremism. But there has been little sign yet of a sustained effort by the government to reach out to the Sufis as allies or highlight how far out of step the extremists are with the country's religious mainstream.

"If you want to understand the inclusiveness and tolerance of Islam, you have to visit the shrines of Sufis," Qureshi said. "I believe that if you want to counter terrorism in long term, the strongest weapon is not the Kalashnikov, it is education, it is a changing of hearts and minds."

But even with their shrines under attack, Sufis are not rising against the militants or even loudly criticizing them.

Some of this silence is down to fear. The Taliban are known to terrorize and kill opponents. Many people also complain that the security forces would not support them if they put their necks on the line.

Another reason is that for many ordinary Pakistanis, anger at the Taliban is offset by anger at the United States for wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that many here view as directed against Muslims. Experts also note the Taliban are primarily a political movement, not a religious one, despite how they may present their struggle.

"If most of Pakistan believed what the Taliban believe, the story would be over," said Daniel Markey, a senior fellow at the U.S Council on Foreign Relations. "So there is something there, but a lot of it has to do with political control. They use the rhetoric of Islam and claim to follow a pure version of it, but this is not a religious issue."

The shrines to the saints, which range from simple tombs tucked away in tiny villages to large complexes in cities that rake in thousands of dollars a day in donations, are found across the country.

They are traditionally visited by men and women — another red flag to the extremists, who believe in the strict segregation of the sexes. Such is the pull of the saints, members of the country's tiny Hindu and Christian minorities pray at some shrines — and meet no objection from other worshippers.

Many are havens for hashish smokers and dealers. Beggars, fortune tellers, food hawkers, drummers, devotional singers and wealthy folk handing out plates of lentil curry mingle at the most popular tombs, which pulsate with life late into the night.

In Karachi, the country's biggest city, hundreds remove their shoes each day to climb the steps to the seaside shrine of Abdullah Shah Ghazi, an 8th century saint credited with bringing Islam to the area. Incense fills the air, as families, the young and the old, file past the tomb, pressing their heads against the stone, kissing it and throwing rose petals. Before leaving they take a pinch of supposedly holy salt from a pot on the tomb.

Mohammed Ahmed, a devout Muslim who teaches computer studies, started visiting the shrine after his wife had trouble conceiving. Now with a grinning 1-year-old girl on his hip, he comes each Saturday to say "thank you" to the saint for granting his wish.

For orthodox Muslims, asking any power but God for help is a grave sin that represents a watering down of the fierce monotheism that is at the heart of Islam. But Ahmed sees no sin, jokingly saying that asking for help by way of Ghazi ensures that his prayers get "priority" with God.

Militants have attacked or seized shrines before, but in targeting the resting place of Rahman Baba, they chose one of the most famous tombs in the region.

Scholars say it is hard to overestimate the affection felt by the Pashtun ethnic group of northwest Pakistan and southern Afghanistan for Baba, who lived 300 years ago. In many houses in the region, his verses of love, peace and devotion to God sit alongside the Quran, Islam's holiest book, as the only books on the shelf.

"His grave is the center of Pashtun culture," said Dr. Raj Wali Khattak, from the Peshawar University's Pashtun literature department. "While there is some dispute over who the greatest Pashtun poet is, no one disagrees that he is the most popular."

The attackers, who have not been caught, crept into the complex before dawn as the watchman was praying at the adjoining mosque. They detonated explosives left on the pillars of the tomb and on his tomb before fleeing.

The blasts irreparably damaged the building, which has since been demolished to allow for a new one to be built.

The complex is a frequent meeting place for Peshawar's literati and houses a small library that is visited by around 60 people each day. The library, which was undamaged, is home to a collection of around 100 books in English, including biology text books and general knowledge tomes.

"This place is like a paradise for us," said Khurshed Afridi, who is studying for a masters degree in sociology. "It enhances our mind."

Associated Press Writer Carley Petesch in New York contributed to this report.

One Husband, Two Kids, Three Deployments

Op-Ed Contributor
By MELISSA SELIGMAN
Published: May 24, 2009
Fort Riley, Kan.
FIVE years ago, my new husband, David, swallowed his tears as he tried to find a way to say goodbye. He held our baby girl to his nose, inhaled her newborn scent and searched my eyes for understanding. “You know I have to go, right?” he asked. I nodded, trying to understand his leaving, his sense of duty. I imagined that I did as I watched him walk out our kitchen door toward a war in Afghanistan, but I didn’t.
We talked — sometimes twice a day — ignoring the popping and snapping on the line and the long delays between our voices on the Webcam. And I fooled myself into believing a two-dimensional image could transmit and sustain a three-dimensional marriage. After all, I could see his eyes, hear his laughter. But he knew nothing of what I thought about our marriage, nothing of my postpartum depression and nothing of my anger at feeling lonely in a life that he chose.
How could I look at him on the Webcam and tell his sad eyes that I felt abandoned? How would I live with myself if, God forbid, the last words he heard from me were painful truths? The pressure to keep our conversations light controlled me, and it brought our marriage to a halt. When he returned from Afghanistan, I almost left him.
When he began packing for his second deployment, this time to Iraq, when he held our second newborn — a son, Elijah — my chest constricted just thinking of what might happen to us. To him.
“Let’s not make the same mistakes,” he said. “No secrets this time.” I nodded, even though I knew full well that, faced with the Webcam, I would again hide my fears and anger.
With our daughter, Amelia, now 2 years old, the computer visits were more necessary than ever — she knew him now and longed for his attention. But they were harder than I could have imagined. Amelia would beg for days to see her daddy on the computer and then, when he appeared on the screen, ignore him. David pleaded with his eyes, but she walked away, defiantly — as only a toddler can do.
“She’s just tired,” I’d say. He’d look down, hiding his emotions. I tried to hide mine as well. I wanted to be delighted, to drop everything when the instant messenger paged me, when he gave up badly needed sleep to be with us. But sometimes I couldn’t help being annoyed at the interference. I needed unbroken routines in order to be both a mother and father to my children. At times, I wished he wouldn’t call.
And then we found salvation in letters. I had always kept a diary, but growing frustrated with my inability to really connect with David through the Webcam and on the phone, I started sending him long letters from my journal. Before long, I was picking out stationery to match my moods and searching for the perfect pen to carry my thoughts. David responded with enthusiasm.
Writing allowed us to regain control of our marriage. On paper, our memories came to life. Through letters we could share our concerns without worrying that we’d be misinterpreted.
As I read David’s words, I smelled his cologne, I heard him whistle while I cooked, I felt his hand on the small of my back. Amelia would stuff her daddy’s letters into her pockets and take them with her to the playground. At night, she would beg me to read the letters again. Over and over until she felt content enough to sleep.
And the paintings that Amelia and Elijah sent to their dad allowed him to marvel at how his children were growing. He could run his calloused fingers over the bumps and grooves of their handprints. He could watch Amelia learn to form the letters in her name and guess what Elijah was eating from the bits of food that made their way onto the construction paper.
We poured our hearts into the letters, and there were no time delays in the way, no fears that an argument would be unfinished when the satellite dropped.
I know I’m not the first military spouse who has struggled to communicate with a loved one on deployment — and I know I won’t be the last. For those who came before me, the burden to overcome was communicating without technology — waiting months for letters to arrive. For me and those still to come, it’s learning to communicate despite technology.
And now my husband is packing again, for another deployment to Iraq. The only balm is that this time we can count on our letters to help heal our broken hearts.

Melissa Seligman is the author of “The Day After He Left for Iraq” and the host of “Her War,” a podcast for military wives.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

The Case Against Women Driving in KSA

For anyone who has ever lived in or visited the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, you can attest to the fact that the drivers here - all men, of course - are more often than not, crazy, reckless, and not at all courteous, with few exceptions. Many drivers here seem to think that they are more important and in more of a hurry than everyone else. Traffic is always a nightmare. I can't help but think that if women were allowed to drive here, driving conditions would drastically improve and naturally become more civilized and the streets would become safer for everyone.



The arguments for why women should not and are not allowed to drive here in Saudi Arabia are weak, at best. I've talked at length with my husband about this subject and his basic vague reason is that women aren't allowed to drive here "for their own protection." This can have many different connotations, but I really believe that the main thinking behind this type of logic is expressed in a video of a Saudi cleric filmed in 2005, called "Why Women Shouldn’t Be Allowed to Drive (in Saudi Arabia)." You can view it for yourself by clicking HERE, or just read the complete translation below for this holy man of Islam's own words.

From the Memri TV Project – Saudi Cleric Dr. Abd Al-Aziz Al-Fawzan: Al-Majd TV - KSA/UAE - June 17, 2005.

“In conservative countries like Saudi Arabia, this blessed kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which, Allah be praised, is the most conservative in the Muslim world, in which a woman maintains her honor, decency, and modesty, and she does not reveal anything – not her hands, her face, or anything – how can she drive a car? Those who call to allow women to drive – according to what has been written – can be divided into two groups. The first group includes Westernized people, who want to westernize the society, to tell the truth. They want to destroy society, corrupt it, and drag it down into the depths of decay and permissiveness, like in Western societies. These people have been blinded by what they saw there when they studied or visited there, and they want our society to be like other societies. They want it to be devoid of all values, morals, and modesty. They want women to go out on the streets all made up, like a harlot, with her face uncovered, like they see in the West. They think that the shortest and best way to reach this goal is to allow women to drive, because if a woman drives, she will reveal her face, drive without a male chaperone, will have an easy opportunity to meet all kinds of young men and women, and she will get all made up, will mix with men, and so on. I don’t think that any woman throughout human history has been as oppressed as the Western woman today – and they still claim they have given her freedom. They took her out of the home in order to exploit her - to exploit her honor and dignity. Furthermore, in many countries, her salary is lower than the man’s, but she works more than him. She does not get what she wants unless she sacrifices her honor, to her bosses or her co-workers. How strange! Even though they have permissiveness there, and any man can satisfy his desires outside of marriage, he’s not satisfied with ten or twenty. Any girl he sees, who has certain features, he wants. If she consents, fine. If not, he rapes her. “


This is the kind of twisted reasoning that the people here are fed by their highly respected religious leaders. This guy is actually insinuating that every Western man, when confronted with a woman he finds desirable, will either have sex with her willingly or unwillingly. Puhh-leeeazzze! And he makes it sound like there are no people in the West with morals or modesty or honor, that every single person in the West is corrupt, that all women are exploited and have to sleep around to get anywhere in the workplace. Not only are his remarks extremely exaggerated and inaccurate, but they are also highly offensive and insulting.



I was truly appalled when I viewed this video, because it made me realize that the big problem is that people here listen to and believe inaccuracies like this. I know that Muslims don't like or appreciate other people making ridiculous generalizations about them like - all Muslims are terrorists, that they all beat their wives, and that the women are oppressed. But then they should also understand that making their own ridiculous generalizations about Westerners like - all Western men are rapists, all Western women are harlots, all Westerners have no morals - are just as wrong and hurtful. These types of broad, derrogatory, and highly exaggerated portrayals of one another must stop if there is ever to be any real peace and understanding between the Middle East and the West.

U.S. to Expand Immigration Checks to All Local Jails

Obama Administration's Enforcement Push Could Lead to Sharp Increase in Deportation Cases

Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, May 19, 2009

The Obama administration is expanding a program initiated by President George W. Bush aimed at checking the immigration status of virtually every person booked into local jails. In four years, the measure could result in a tenfold increase in illegal immigrants who have been convicted of crimes and identified for deportation, current and former U.S. officials said.

By matching inmates' fingerprints to federal immigration databases, authorities hope to pinpoint deportable illegal immigrants before they are released from custody. Inmates in federal and state prisons already are screened. But authorities generally lack the time and staff to do the same at local jails, which house up to twice as many illegal immigrants at any time and where inmates come and go more quickly.

The effort is likely to significantly reshape immigration enforcement, current and former executive branch officials said. It comes as the Obama administration and Democratic leaders in Congress vow to crack down on illegal immigrants who commit crimes, rather than those who otherwise abide by the law.

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Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano has made it "very clear" that her top priority is deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes, said David J. Venturella, program director at U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

"We mean this, we're serious about it, and we believe we need to put in an all-out effort to get this done," said Rep. David E. Price (D-N.C.), chairman of the House Appropriations subcommittee for homeland security. He has led calls to remove illegal immigrants convicted of crimes after their sentences are served.

The program began as a pilot effort in October and operates in 48 counties across the country, including Fairfax County. This year, fingerprints from 1 million local jail bookings will be screened under the program. It also operates in Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Boston and Phoenix, according to ICE, and will expand to nearly all local jails by the end of 2012.

The effort differs from programs in several Northern Virginia counties where local law enforcement officers have been deputized to question suspects about whether they are in the country legally. In Montgomery County, police provide immigration authorities the names of those arrested on charges of violent crimes and handgun violations.

Under the new program, the immigration checks will be automatic: Fingerprints currently being run through the FBI's criminal history database also will be matched against immigration databases maintained by the Department of Homeland Security. The effort would not catch people who have never been fingerprinted by U.S. authorities.

Based on the pilot program, the agency estimates that if fingerprints from all 14 million bookings in local jails each year were screened, about 1.4 million "criminal aliens" would be found, Venturella said. That would be about 10 times the 117,000 criminal illegal immigrants ICE deported last year. There are more than 3,100 local jails nationwide, compared with about 1,200 federal and state prisons.

The program, known as Secure Communities, "presents an historic opportunity to transform immigration enforcement," said Julie Myers Wood, who launched it last year while head of ICE.

In his proposed 2010 budget, President Obama asked Congress last week for $200 million for the program, a 30 percent increase that puts it on track to receive $1.1 billion by 2013.

The program could help answer for the first time a question that has been intertwined with debates over immigration policy: How many illegal immigrants in the United States are convicted of non-immigration crimes?

But even some supporters of the program wonder whether it can be implemented smoothly and whether there will be sufficient funding. A surge in deportation cases, noted Stewart Baker, former assistant secretary of homeland security for policy, would require more prosecutors, immigration judges, detention beds and other resources.

Venturella also acknowledged that integrating federal, state and local databases is complex and that the capabilities of local jurisdictions vary. Some counties may take several years to be linked in.

"It's a good program. It's a very expensive program," said Jessica Vaughan, director of policy for the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington think tank that advocates tighter immigration controls. "I don't know if it's feasible or sensible for all state and local governments."

Venturella said ICE will give priority to deporting the most dangerous offenders: national security risks or those convicted of violent crimes. Based on initial projections, the agency estimates that 100,000 of these are "Level 1 offenders" and that deporting them would cost $1.1 billion over four years. Removing all criminal illegal immigrants would cost $3 billion, ICE estimated last year.

Critics say that deporting the worst criminal illegal immigrants, by itself, does not go far enough because it would not fully address the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants already in the United States or deter further illegal immigration.

"If the Obama administration abandons immigration enforcement in all but the most serious criminal cases, then they will create a de facto amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants and will encourage even more illegal immigration," said Rep. Lamar Smith (Tex.), the ranking Republican on the House Judiciary Committee.

He said the Obama administration should complete construction of a border fence, enforce laws against hiring illegal workers and deport illegal immigrants before they commit crimes.

Amnesty International and immigrant advocates warn that the change could lead to immigration checks in other arenas and the "criminalization" of illegal immigration.

Tom Barry, an analyst for the Center for International Policy, a nonprofit research and policy institute in Washington, said the initiative could sweep up foreign-born U.S. residents who have served time for offenses but were not deported.

"Many, many legal immigrants are going to be pulled into this net even for minor violations that they're booked for -- traffic violations, drunk driving, whatever -- and after they've lived here 10 or 20 years, they're going to be deported," Barry said.

By checking all people who are booked, supporters say, the program avoids racial profiling. It also could stem what some see as overzealous efforts by some local authorities who, through a $60 million-a-year ICE training program, have stepped up their pursuit of illegal immigrants through measures such as neighborhood sweeps and traffic stops.

"The administration should reassert the primacy of the federal government's role in enforcing immigration law," said Donald Kerwin, vice president for programs at the Migration Policy Institute, a think tank in Washington. He said, however, that such action should be coupled with efforts to find lawyers for immigrants in deportation proceedings. Unlike in criminal courts, the immigration court system does not provide public defenders.

Site Lets Writers Sell Digital Copies

Writers can sell their work via Scribd, encrypted against piracy.

Published: May 17, 2009

SAN FRANCISCO — Turning itself into a kind of electronic vanity publisher, Scribd, an Internet start-up here, will introduce on Monday a way for anyone to upload a document to the Web and charge for it.

The Scribd Web site is the most popular of several document-sharing sites that take a YouTube-like approach to text, letting people upload sample chapters of books, research reports, homework, recipes and the like. Users can read documents on the site, embed them in other sites and share links over social networks and e-mail.

In the new Scribd store, authors or publishers will be able to set their own price for their work and keep 80 percent of the revenue. They can also decide whether to encode their documents with security software that will prevent their texts from being downloaded or freely copied.

Authors can choose to publish their documents in unprotected PDFs, which would make them readable on the Amazon Kindle and most other mobile devices. Scribd also says it is readying an application for the iPhone from Apple and will introduce it next month.

Scribd hopes its more open and flexible system will give it a leg up on Amazon, which has become the largest player in the burgeoning market for e-books. Amazon sets the retail price for books in its Kindle store and keeps the majority of the revenue on some titles, which has publishers worried that Amazon is amassing too much control over the nascent market. Amazon also allows those books to be read only on its Kindle devices and in Kindle software on the iPhone.

“One reason publishers are excited to work with us is that they worry that publishing channels are contracting as Amazon and Google are gaining control over the e-book space,” said Jared Friedman, chief technology officer and a founder of Scribd.

But Scribd also has some hurdles to overcome itself. Though large publishing firms like Random House have experimented with the site, they also express frustration that copies of some works have been uploaded to Scribd without permission.

Trying to address the piracy problem, Scribd is building a database of copyrighted works and using it to filter its system. If a publisher participates in the Scribd store, its books will be added to that database, the company said.

So far, no major publishing houses have signed on to the store, though the company says it is talking to them. The independent publishers Lonely Planet, O’Reilly Media and Berrett-Koehler will add their entire catalogs.

The Scribd store will also give unpublished authors, or authors who are in a hurry, a well-trafficked Web forum on which to post their books, charge for them and see immediate results.

Kemble Scott, who has released a novel through a conventional publisher, said he would post his topical new political comedy, “The Sower,” to Scribd and charge $2 for it, partly because standard publishing is so slow. “If this is a book that is going to be interesting to people, now is the time that it fits into the national mood,” he said.

House-Price Drops Leave More Underwater

by Ruth Simon and James R. Hagerty
Monday, May 18, 2009

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The downturn in home prices has left about 20% of U.S. homeowners owing more on a mortgage than their homes are worth, according to one new study, signaling additional challenges to the Obama administration's efforts to stabilize the housing market.

The increase in the number of such "underwater" borrowers comes amid signs that falling prices are making homes more affordable for first-time buyers and others who have been shut out of the housing market. But falling prices also make it more difficult for homeowners who get into financial trouble to refinance or sell their homes, and for others to take advantage of lower interest rates.

For instance, fewer will qualify to take advantage of a key component of the Obama administration's plan to stabilize the housing market. Under the plan, announced in February, as many as five million homeowners whose loans are owned or guaranteed by government-controlled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can refinance their mortgages, but only if the mortgage loan is a maximum of 105% of the home's value.

Government officials are considering an increase in that limit. "It's a question that we're looking at," said James Lockhart, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates Fannie and Freddie.

Real-estate Web site Zillow.com said that overall, the number of borrowers who are underwater climbed to 20.4 million at the end of the first quarter from 16.3 million at the end of the fourth quarter. The latest figure represents 21.9% of all homeowners, according to Zillow, up from 17.6% in the fourth quarter and 14.3% in the third quarter.

"What's going on here is that you don't have any markets that have turned around and you have new markets, like Dallas, that have joined the ranks" of communities where home prices have fallen, said Stan Humphries, a Zillow.com vice president.

Borrowers who owe far more than their home is worth may also be less likely to participate in another part of the government's housing plan, which provides incentives for mortgage companies to modify loans to make payments more affordable. Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist, said borrowers who owe 30% more than their homes are worth are far more likely to walk away from their property than those who owe just 5% or 10% more and expect prices to rebound. More than one in 10 borrowers with a mortgage owed 110% or more of their home's value at the end of last year, according to First American CoreLogic.

There are some recent indications that the housing market could be beginning to stabilize. The National Association of Realtors pending home-sales index, for instance, increased 3.2% in March.

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Just how many borrowers are underwater is a matter of some dispute, with the answer depending in part on assumptions regarding home values and mortgage debt outstanding. Variations in home-price estimates can make a major difference in the number of borrowers who are underwater. In addition, borrowers who are already in the foreclosure process may be counted as being underwater if the title to their property hasn't changed hands.

Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, said underwater estimates can be too high if they use price data that includes a large number of foreclosures. Foreclosed homes tend to sell at a discount, he said, making it appear that prices have fallen more than they actually have.

Moody's Economy.com estimates that of 78.2 million owner-occupied single-family homes, 14.8 million borrowers, or 19%, owed more than their homes were worth at the end of the first quarter, up from 13.6 million at the end of last year.

Part of the reason Zillow's numbers are higher may be that it looks at mortgage debt taken out at the time the home was purchased and doesn't adjust for any payments since made toward the outstanding mortgage balance. It also assumes that borrowers who took out home-equity lines of credit at the time of purchase have fully tapped the amount they can borrow. That approach can overstate the portion of borrowers who are underwater, Mr. Zandi said.

Mr. Humphries of Zillow calls his methodology conservative and said Zillow's use of pricing for individual homes provides a better measure of home valuations than Mr. Zandi's approach, which relies on market-level estimates of home values. He adds that Zillow doesn't include foreclosures in its pricing models.

Write to Ruth Simon at ruth.simon@wsj.com and James R. Hagerty at bob.hagerty@wsj.com

Pakistan Is Rapidly Adding Nuclear Arms, U.S. Says *

Published: May 17, 2009

WASHINGTON — Members of Congress have been told in confidential briefings that Pakistan is rapidly adding to its nuclear arsenal even while racked by insurgency, raising questions on Capitol Hill about whether billions of dollars in proposed military aid might be diverted to Pakistan’s nuclear program.

Matthew Cavanaugh/European Pressphoto Agency

Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, with Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, during a Senate hearing on Thursday.

Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed the assessment of the expanded arsenal in a one-word answer to a question on Thursday in the midst of lengthy Senate testimony. Sitting beside Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, he was asked whether he had seen evidence of an increase in the size of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal.

“Yes,” he said quickly, adding nothing, clearly cognizant of Pakistan’s sensitivity to any discussion about the country’s nuclear strategy or security.

Inside the Obama administration, some officials say, Pakistan’s drive to spend heavily on new nuclear arms has been a source of growing concern, because the country is producing more nuclear material at a time when Washington is increasingly focused on trying to assure the security of an arsenal of 80 to 100 weapons so that they will never fall into the hands of Islamic insurgents.

The administration’s effort is complicated by the fact that Pakistan is producing an unknown amount of new bomb-grade uranium and, once a series of new reactors is completed, bomb-grade plutonium for a new generation of weapons. President Obama has called for passage of a treaty that would stop all nations from producing more fissile material — the hardest part of making a nuclear weapon — but so far has said nothing in public about Pakistan’s activities.

Bruce Riedel, the Brookings Institution scholar who served as the co-author of Mr. Obama’s review of Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy, reflected the administration’s concern in a recent interview, saying that Pakistan “has more terrorists per square mile than anyplace else on earth, and it has a nuclear weapons program that is growing faster than anyplace else on earth.”

Obama administration officials said that they had communicated to Congress that their intent was to assure that military aid to Pakistan was directed toward counterterrorism and not diverted. But Admiral Mullen’s public confirmation that the arsenal is increasing — a view widely held in both classified and unclassified analyses — seems certain to aggravate Congress’s discomfort.

Whether that discomfort might result in a delay or reduction in aid to Pakistan is still unclear.

The Congressional briefings have taken place in recent weeks as Pakistan has descended into further chaos and as Congress has considered proposals to spend $3 billion over the next five years to train and equip Pakistan’s military for counterinsurgency warfare. That aid would come on top of $7.5 billion in civilian assistance.

None of the proposed military assistance is directed at the nuclear program. So far, America’s aid to Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure has been limited to a $100 million classified program to help Pakistan secure its weapons and materials from seizure by Al Qaeda, the Taliban or “insiders” with insurgent loyalties.

But the billions in new proposed American aid, officials acknowledge, could free other money for Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure, at a time when Pakistani officials have expressed concern that their nuclear program is facing a budget crunch for the first time, worsened by the global economic downturn. The program employs tens of thousands of Pakistanis, including about 2,000 believed to possess “critical knowledge” about how to produce a weapon.

The dimensions of the Pakistani buildup are not fully understood. “We see them scaling up their centrifuge facilities,” said David Albright, the president of the Institute for Science and International Security, which has been monitoring Pakistan’s continued efforts to buy materials on the black market, and analyzing satellite photographs of two new plutonium reactors less than 100 miles from where Pakistani forces are currently fighting the Taliban.

“The Bush administration turned a blind eye to how this is being ramped up,” he said. “And of course, with enough pressure, all this could be preventable.”

As a matter of diplomacy, however, the buildup presents Mr. Obama with a potential conflict between two national security priorities, some aides concede. One is to win passage of a global agreement to stop the production of fissile material — the uranium or plutonium used to produce weapons. Pakistan has never agreed to any limits and is one of three countries, along with India and Israel, that never signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Yet the other imperative is a huge infusion of financial assistance into Afghanistan and Pakistan, money considered crucial to helping stabilize governments with tenuous holds on power in the face of terrorist and insurgent violence.

Senior members of Congress were already pressing for assurances from Pakistan that the American military assistance would be used to fight the insurgency, and not be siphoned off for more conventional military programs to counter Pakistan’s historic adversary, India. Official confirmation that Pakistan has accelerated expansion of its nuclear program only added to the consternation of those in Congress who were already voicing serious concern about the security of those warheads.

During a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday, Senator Jim Webb, a Virginia Democrat, veered from the budget proposal under debate to ask Admiral Mullen about public reports “that Pakistan is, at the moment, increasing its nuclear program — that it may be actually adding on to weapons systems and warheads. Do you have any evidence of that?”

It was then that Admiral Mullen responded with his one-word confirmation. Mr. Webb said Pakistan’s decision was a matter of “enormous concern,” and he added, “Do we have any type of control factors that would be built in, in terms of where future American money would be going, as it addresses what I just asked about?”

Similar concerns about seeking guarantees that American military assistance to Pakistan would be focused on battling insurgents also were expressed by Senator Carl Levin of Michigan, the committee chairman.

“Unless Pakistan’s leaders commit, in deeds and words, their country’s armed forces and security personnel to eliminating the threat from militant extremists, and unless they make it clear that they are doing so, for the sake of their own future, then no amount of assistance will be effective,” Mr. Levin said.

A spokesman for the Pakistani government contacted Friday declined to comment on whether his nation was expanding its nuclear weapons program, but said the government was “maintaining the minimum, credible deterrence capability.” He warned against linking American financial assistance to Pakistan’s actions on its weapons program.

“Conditions or sanctions on this issue did not work in the past, and this will not send a positive message to the people of Pakistan,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because his country’s nuclear program is classified.

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Pakistan's Coming Collapse


Since last month a growing number of folks in the intelligence community, as well as defense and diplomatic officials, have been coming to the conclusion that nuclear-armed Pakistan will collapse into a region of chaos controlled by Islamic warlords and terrorists. This breakdown of the country will turn Pakistan into a safe haven for al-Qaida, and other terrorist groups. Considering the Nuclear arsenal in Pakistan, this comes as grave news for the West.

A few days ago General Petraeus announced that he believes Pakistan could be a matter of a couple weeks away from collapse, since Taliban fighters have strengthened their grip on northwestern Pakistan, and militants have advanced to within 60 miles of Islamabad.

This is why the Right has been supporting Pakistan's President Musharraf, despite the fact that he was a dictator. Better a hardline dictator with a fairly decent relationship with the U.S. to be in charge of Pakistan, than the Taliban and al-Qaida. Nonetheless, the Left complained about our support for Musharraf, and the Liberals did whatever they could to undermine the relationship George W. Bush had with Pakistan. Obama, in fact, even threatened Pakistan with attack during his campaign as Bush was trying to nurse the relationship in hopes of averting what is happening now from happening.

Now, with Obama's apology tour throughout Europe and the Middle East, as well as his signs of weakness in the eyes of Islamism, we are being surrendered by Obama, and the Islamic terrorists are going to gain control of Pakistan, and possibly unleash the nuclear terror available in that country on Israel, Europe, and possibly elsewhere in the form of nuclear terrorism.

The identity of Pakistan is changing, and the future direction of Pakistan resembles that of Iran after the Islamic Revolution enabled by President Jimmy Carter.

Obama is, then, this generations Jimmy Carter, but worse.

-- Political Pistachio Conservative News and Commentary

Tough talk on Pakistan from Obama - Reuters, Steve Holland

Obama threatens Pakistan - The International News, Roedad Kahn

Taliban Tighten Their Grip on Pakistan's Northwest - Fox News

Experts predict Pakistan’s collapse - Kansas City Star, Jonathan S. Landay

US general says Pakistan could be just two weeks from collapse - UK Telegraph, Isambard Wilkinson

Taliban Seize Vital Pakistan Area Closer to the Capital - The Dispatch, Jane Perlez

Pakistan’s Islamic Schools Fill Void, but Fuel Militancy - New York Times, Sabrina Tavernise

Strife in Pakistan Raises U.S. Doubts Over Nuclear Arms - New York Times, David E. Sanger

Is Pakistan Nearing Collapse?



Pakistani police officers in a shrine in Buner, Pakistan, on April 18, 2009
Pakistani police officers in a shrine in Buner, Pakistan, on April 18, 2009
B.K.Bangash / AP

The move by Taliban-backed militants into the Buner district of northwestern Pakistan, closer than ever to Pakistan's capital of Islamabad, have prompted concerns both within the country and abroad that the nuclear-armed nation of 165 million is on the verge of inexorable collapse.

On Wednesday a local Taliban militia crossed from the Swat Valley — where a February cease-fire allowed the implementation of strict Islamic, or Shari'a, law — into the neighboring Buner district, which is just a few hours drive from Islamabad (65 miles, separated by a mountain range, as the crow flies). ((See pictures on the frontlines in the battle against the Taliban.)

Residents streaming from Buner, home to nearly a million people, told local newspapers that armed militants are patrolling the streets. Pakistani television stations aired footage of Taliban soldiers looting government offices and capturing vehicles belonging to aid organizations and development projects. The police, say residents, are nowhere to be seen. The shrine of a local Muslim saint, venerated across the country, was closed. The Taliban, which adheres to a stricter version of Islam than is practiced in most of Pakistan, hold that worship at such shrines goes against the teachings of Islam.

Meanwhile courts throughout the Malakand division, of which Swat and Buner are a part, have closed in deference to the new agreement calling for the implementation Shari'a, law. "If the Taliban continue to move at this pace they will soon be knocking at the doors of Islamabad," Maulana Fazlur Rehman, head of one of the country's Islamic political parties, warned in Parliament Wednesday. Rehman said the Margalla Hills, a small mountain range north of the capital that separates it from Buner, appears to be "the only hurdle in their march toward the federal capital," The only solution, he said, was for the entire nation to accept Shari'a law in order to deprive the Taliban of their principal cause.

The fall of Buner is raising international alarm. Speaking before the House Foreign Affairs Committee in Washington Wednesday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton characterized the situation was a danger to Pakistan, the U.S. and the world. "We cannot underscore the seriousness of the existential threat posed to the state of Pakistan by continuing advances, now within hours of Islamabad, that are being made by a loosely confederated group of terrorists and others who are seeking the overthrow of the Pakistani state," Clinton said. She also accused Pakistan's leaders of "basically abdicating to the Taliban and the extremists" by signing the cease-fire agreement. (Read "Will Pakistan Toughen Up on the Taliban?")

Even before the fall of Buner, the capital was in a state of panic. Private schools were closed for two weeks for fear that militants would attempt a siege, along the lines of the Taliban attack on a police academy in Lahore last month. And an unspecified threat against foreigners two weeks ago resulted in the closure of the U.S. embassy and the British High Commission for a day.

On Sunday, just a week after Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari signed a provision allowing for the implementation of Islamic law in Malakand, Sufi Mohammad, the local religious leader who negotiated the accord (and who is father-in-law to the local Taliban leader), announced that he would not recognize the Supreme Court of Pakistan, even in cases of appeal. He also said that while the Taliban fighters would adhere to the peace agreement, they would not give up their arms. (Read "Can Pakistan Be Untangled from the Taliban?")

Pakistan's ambassador to the U.S., Husain Haqqani, defended the government's concession to the Taliban, denying in an interview with CNN that the cease-fire agreement amounted to capitulation. He justified the action by comparing it to the 2006 U.S.-led Anbar Awakening in Iraq in which U.S. military commanders struck agreements with moderate jihadists. "We are open to criticism of that strategy, but to think that that strategy somehow represents an abdication of our responsibility toward our people and toward the security of our country and the region is incorrect," Haqqani said.

Also on Wednesday, a top adviser to Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani made an explosive announcement accusing a long-simmering separatist movement in the province of Baluchistan of being sponsored by archenemy India and Afghanistan. The mysterious deaths of several Baluch leaders over the past few weeks have renewed demands for Baluch independence from the nation of Pakistan.

The implication by Rehman Malik, Gilani's Interior Affairs adviser, that neighboring countries were fomenting instability in Pakistan will only heighten regional tensions at a moment when the country is least equipped to deal with them. Already columnists in several Pakistani newspapers are warning of a return to 1971, when a separatist movement in East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, ended with a civil war that split the nation.

David Kilcullen, a counter-terrorism expert for both the Bush and the Obama administrations, warned that Pakistan is on the brink of collapse. "Afghanistan doesn't worry me," Kilcullen said in an April 12 interview with the Sydney Morning Herald. "Pakistan does. We have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we're calling the war on terror now."

During an April 16 conference in Tokyo to raise donations for his beleaguered nation, Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari warned that terrorists operating in the country posed a global threat. At that conference, countries including the U.S. and Japan pledged more than $5 billion to improve health, education and governance in Pakistan.

But with security and stability increasingly in doubt, it's becoming clear that more urgent action is needed beyond financial donations aimed at institution-building. Neither Zardari nor opposition leaders have been able to come up with answers to the insurgency. Columnist Kamila Hyat, writing in The News, called for an overhaul of current strategies, including reaching out to Pakistan's old foe, India. If Pakistan doesn't have to worry about protecting its eastern flank, she argued, it can concentrate on solving its internal problems. "The only option for Pakistan is to break free of the militant grip, focus on building a new relationship with India and realize the only hope for a brighter future lies in building regional harmony rather than waging war." It's a sound proposal for the long term, but with the Taliban already taking advantage of the peace deal in Swat to expand their reach, Pakistan may be forced into negotiating with militants first.

Pakistan could collapse in six months: Kilcullen


Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Centcom adviser warns Pakistan in danger; says Pak security services a rogue state within a state

News Desk

WASHINGTON: The Pakistani state could collapse within six months if immediate steps are not taken to remedy the situation, warned a top adviser to the US Central Command.

David Kilcullen, who advises CENTCOM commander Gen. David H. Petraeus on the war on terror, urged US policymakers to focus their attention on Pakistan as a failure there could have devastating consequences for the entire international community.

In an interview with The Washington Post (Sunday Edition), Kilcullen, who is credited with the success of the US troop surge strategy in Iraq, warned that if Pakistan went out of control, it would ‘dwarf’ all the crises in the world today. “Pakistan hands down. No doubt,” he said when asked to name the central front in the war against terror.

Asked to explain why he thought Pakistan was so important, Kilcullen said: “Pakistan has 173 million people, 100 nuclear weapons, an army bigger than the US Army, and al-Qaeda headquarters sitting right there in the two-thirds of the country that the government doesnít control.”

He claimed that the Pakistani military and police and intelligence service did not follow the civilian government; they were essentially a rogue state within a state. “Were now reaching the point where within one to six months we could see the collapse of the Pakistani state, also because of the global financial crisis, which just exacerbates all these problems,” he said. “The collapse of Pakistan, al-Qaeda acquiring nuclear weapons, an extremist takeover — that would dwarf everything we’ve seen in the war on terror today.”

Kilcullen, an Australian anthropologist who advises governments on Muslim militancy throughout the West, disagreed with the suggestion that it was important to kill or capture Osama bin laden. He discussed two possible scenarios for catching the al-Qaeda leader. Scenario one is, American commandos shoot their way into some valley in Pakistan and kill bin Laden. This, Kilcullen said, would not end the war on terror and would make bin Laden a martyr.

The second scenario: a tribal raiding party captures bin Laden, puts him on television and says, “You are a traitor to Islam and you have killed more Muslims than you have killed infidels, and we’re now going to deal with you.” They could either then try and execute the guy in accordance with their own laws or hand him over to the International Criminal Court. “If that happened, that would be the end of the al-Qaeda myth,” said Kilcullen. He said that three lessons learned in Iraq could also apply to Afghanistan. The first one is to protect the population. “Unless people feel safe, they won’t be willing to engage in unarmed politics,” he argued.

The second lesson is to focus on getting the population on America’s side and making them self-defending. And then a third lesson is to make a long-term commitment. Kilcullen said that the Obama administration’s policy of reaching out to moderate elements of the Taliban also had several pitfalls. “If the Taliban see that we’re negotiating for a stay of execution or to stave off defeat, that’s going to harden their resolve,” he warns. “I’m all for negotiating, but I think the chances of achieving a mass wave of people turning against the Taliban are somewhat lower in Afghanistan than they were in Iraq.”

Friday, May 15, 2009

Mexico, Pakistan face 'rapid and sudden' collapse: Pentagon

Report tries to forecast 25 years into the future

Peter Goodspeed, National Post Published: Thursday, January 15, 2009

A bomb blast hits a hotel in Pakistan. Radical Islamic elements threaten Pakistan's stability, says a Pentagon report.

Farooq Naemm/AFP/Getty ImageA bomb blast hits a hotel in Pakistan. Radical Islamic elements threaten Pakistan's stability, says a Pentagon report.

A new Pentagon report that tries to predict the type of challenges the U.S. military will face over the next 25 years warns that Mexico and Pakistan could face a "rapid and sudden" collapse.

"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels," the assessment of worldwide security threats says. "How that international conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state."

"Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone," it adds. However, a similar scenario in Pakistan would be catastrophic.

"Some forms of collapse in Pakistan would carry with it the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons," the report says. "That ‘perfect storm' of uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger."

While most of the world's weak and failing states present chronic problems for military planners, the report's authors say the real dangers come when troubled states implode

They point to the breakup of Yugoslavia into a tangle of warring nationalities in the 1990s to demonstrate how suddenly and catastrophically such a thing can happen.

Trying to glimpse 25 years into the future, to 2030 and beyond, the U.S. military's Joint Operations Command predicts a world filled with radical technological, strategic and economic challenges, where "our enemy's capabilities will range from explosive vests worn by suicide bombers to long-range precision-guided cyber, space and missile attacks."

"The threat of mass destruction -- from nuclear, biological and chemical weapons -- will likely expand from stable nation-states to less stable states and even non-state networks," the report says. Here are some of its predictions:

The world's population will grow by more than 60 million a year, with 95% of the increases in developing countries.

As the developing world struggles to cope with rising expectations and a "youth bulge," the developed world will confront acute ageing problems.

The performance of the global economy will be crucial in dampening down or inflaming violence because volatile regions such as the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, where the "youth bulge" will reach more than 50% of the population, will have fewer inhibitions about engaging in conflict.

Energy

Expect severe shortages. By 2012 "surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach 10 million barrels a day."

"The implications for future conflict are ominous," it says. "If the major developed and developing states do not undertake a massive expansion of production and refining capabilities, a severe energy crunch is inevitable."

Between now and 2030, worldwide demand for energy will increase 50%. New sources, such as wind and solar power, are unlikely to account for more than 1% of global energy by 2030 and fossil fuels will continue to account for 80%.

A prolonged energy crisis could exacerbate other world tensions, triggering a global economic crisis, and pushing fragile and failing states toward collapse.

Canada

Oil production from Canada's oil sands could quadruple from one million to four million barrels a day, but only if U.S. lawmakers decide to remove legal restrictions that bar the United States from buying alternative fuels with higher greenhouse gas emissions than conventional sources.

Islamist terror

The war on terror will continue for at least another 25 years since the forces propelling radical Islam are not expected to dissipate.

But a spinoff from a prolonged energy crisis could see windfall oil profits making their way into terrorist coffers or into the hands of anti-Western movements and coalitions.

"Commanders could find themselves operating in environments where even small, energy-rich opponents have military forces with advanced technological capabilities," the report says. "These could include advanced cyber, robotic and even anti-space-based systems."

U.S. dominance in world affairs will be challenged in the next 25 years by the emergence of other powerful states. China's rise will be the "most significant single event on the international horizon since the collapse of the Cold War."

"Present trends suggest that the era of the United States as the sole superpower may be coming to an end," the study says.

"The course that China takes will determine much about the character and nature of the 21st century -- whether it will be another ‘bloody century,' or one of peaceful co-operation."

In terms of gross domestic product, by 2030 China will have the capacity "to afford military forces equal or superior to current U.S. capabilities."

But with a vast growing population and rising expectations, its leaders may focus more on economic development.

"An unsuccessful China is perhaps more worrisome than a prosperous one," the study says. "A serious global economic downturn might force China into dangerous directions."

Russia

The country could see its power and influence ebb. Its infrastructure is crumbling and it has one of the world's worst life expectancy rates (59 years for men, or 148th, between East Timor and Haiti).

A dangerous mix of paranoia, nationalism and bitterness over lost influence could result in an aggressive Russia trying to reassert itself in the Black Sea, the Caucasus and the Baltic.

India's population will grow by 320 million to more than 1.4 billion in the next 25 years and the country could more than quadruple its wealth. But large numbers of its people will stay poor, the study says.

Africa will remain mired in poverty and corruption and exploited by external powers hungry for the continent's resources.

"Even pockets of economic growth are under pressure and may soon regress," the study predicts. "Relatively weak African states will be very hard-pressed to resist pressure by powerful state and non-state actors who embark on a course of interference."

Middle East/Central Asia

The area will remain the centre of world instability.

Long-dormant conflicts over borders, territories, water rights and radical Islam will roil the region from Morocco to Pakistan through Central Asia.

"If the Middle East continues on its troubled path, it is likely the war on terrorism will not continue on its current levels but could actually worsen," the study says.

"Whatever the outcome of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, U.S. forces will find themselves again employed in the region on numerous missions ranging from regular and irregular war, relief and reconstruction, to engagement operations."

Thursday, May 14, 2009

US 'Afpak' strategy troubles some in US and Pakistan

US 'Afpak' strategy troubles some in US and Pakistan

American lawmakers say they haven't been briefed on plans, as some in Pakistan describe the administration as 'confused.'

A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

There's a growing sense that Pakistan may finally be taking on the Taliban, as Washington has pressed it to do for months. But how Washington itself will conduct the war against the extremists seems increasingly unclear: concerns are mounting in Washington, Islamabad, and Kabul over command, long-term strategy, and the controversial use of Predator drones.

The abrupt dismissal this week of Gen. David McKiernan underscored that the administration is still reworking its strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. General McKiernan was overall commander of US forces in Afghanistan, a post usually filled for two years. McKiernan had barely served for one. His replacement by Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, a veteran of special operations and unconventional warfare in Iraq, is supposed to signal a "new strategy" and "a new mission," according to Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

Many security analysts who follow US 'Afpak' strategy have welcomed the change, lauding the skill set McChrystal brings. "McChrystal is known as one of the smartest and least conventional thinkers in the Army, and a counterinsurgent's counterinsurgent," wrote Spencer Ackerman at the Washington Independent, an online paper, predicting "a lot of glowing praise for him from the counterinsurgency community." Many experts also supported the appointment of Lt. Gen. David Rodriguez as deputy commander of US forces in Afghanistan.

But exactly how the generals' expertise will be brought to bear remains unclear. According to Joshua Foust at Registan.net, a blog on Eurasian politics and news:

McChrystal's appointment is a jarring shift for U.S. Forces in Afghanistan, which are currently transitioning commands between the 101st and 82nd Airborne Divisions. It is unclear what having a Special Operations commander in charge will do the overall country strategy, just as it is unclear what two major changes of commands in a short period of time will do to the current units who are deployed there.

As the crisis in Pakistan escalates, some Pakistani analysts fear that confusion reigns in the White House, as a recent opinion piece in Pakistan's The News, expresses:

In 100 days on the job, President Obama's response to the growing crisis in Pakistan has been defined by three C's: confused, confounded and contrived.

Confused, because let's face it. Nobody really knows who's running the show on Pakistan. Is it Joe Biden? ... Or maybe ... Richard Holbrooke ... ? Perhaps, it is really Bruce Riedel, whom President Obama tasked with drafting a new Af-Pak strategy? But wait, maybe ... Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen, who makes more trips to Islamabad than even General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani does. Or perhaps it is the other military man, Centcom Boss General David [Petraeus]? Maybe, it is ISAF & US forces chief David McKiernan? He thinks Pakistan needs to do more to erase the Taliban.... There's always the other David, David Kilcullen. The one that thinks Pakistan is toast in less than six months.

Pakistani analysts aren't alone. During a recent hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, US senators complained that they weren't briefed on the strategy. They know that the Obama administration is preparing to flood Afghanistan with 20,000 more troops, and Pakistan with billions of dollars of US aid. Beyond that, they're in the dark – and that has them very concerned.

"We are going to be engaged there for many, many, many years. Many men and women will lose their lives. We're doubling down, and we haven't debated this yet," Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn) said of the new strategy, reports The Washington Post.

Defending the administration, Richard C. Holbrooke, President Obama's special envoy to the region, insisted there was a strategy, The Washington Post adds:

"To defeat the people who pose a direct threat to our homeland: al-Qaeda and its supporters; to stabilize the government of Afghanistan and give it the ability to be self-sufficient in defense of it."

In Pakistan, he said, "We can do more to help the civilian development and economic issues and help them strengthen democracy."

At the hearing, Democrats and Republicans were both equally concerned about where the proposed aid money for Pakistan – including $400 million for Pakistan's military – would eventually end up and with what strings attached, according to Bloomberg.

A House panel last week approved a $94.2 billion war funding bill, including $400 million for counterinsurgency aid to the Pakistani military, $1.9 billion in State Department and foreign operations assistance to Pakistan and $1.52 billion in State Department funding for Afghanistan.

Lawmakers voting on the bill expressed skepticism about Obama's plans to step up the fight in Afghanistan and added provisions requiring the administration to submit a progress report on the effort by next year.

The flow of money and troops isn't the only concern.

In an important development this week, the US military announced a new partnership with Pakistan to jointly control US Predator drone attacks inside Pakistan. Pakistan's President, Asif Ali Zardari, has been complaining for months that unilaterally-controlled drones impinge on Pakistan's sovereignty and create deep public resentment when civilians are killed. So, in the last month, Pakistan has helped direct several attack flights, a move that should alleviate some of those concerns.

But how Pakistan is using the drones in tandem with the US military is so far unclear – and potentially controversial, the Los Angeles Times reports.

The missions have not involved the firing of any missiles, and some U.S. officials have expressed frustration that the Pakistanis have not used the Predator capabilities more aggressively…

The missions are being controlled from the jointly operated command center in Jalalabad.... Debates between Pakistanis and Americans have taken place within the center over whether potential targets are Taliban leaders or Pakistani tribesmen with only a loose affiliation with the extremists. Nonetheless, U.S. officials said most Pakistani officers in the command center understood the militant threat and were eager to move aggressively.